Are Household Portfolios Efficient? An Analysis Conditional on Housing

Standard tests of portfolio efficiency neglect the existence of illiquid wealth. The most important illiquid asset in household portfolios is housing: if housing stock adjustments are infrequent, optimal portfolios in periods of no adjustment are affected by housing price risk through a hedge term and tests for portfolio efficiency of financial assets must be run conditionally upon housing wealth. We use Italian household portfolio data and time series on financial assets and housing stock returns to assess whether actual portfolios are efficient. We find that housing wealth plays a key role in determining whether portfolios chosen by home-owners are efficient.Housing and portfolio choice, Portfolio efficiency.

Efficient Portfolios when Housing Needs Change over the Life-Cycle

We address the issue of the efficiency of household portfolios in the presence of housing risk. We treat housing stock as an asset and rents as a stochastic liability stream: over the life-cycle, households can be short or long in their net housing position. Efficient financial portfolios are the sum of a standard Markowitz portfolio and a housing risk hedge term that multiplies net housing wealth. Our empirical results show that net housing plays a key role in determining which household portfolios are inefficient. The largest proportion of inefficient portfolios obtains among those with positive net housing, who should invest more in stocks.Housing and portfolio choice, Portfolio efficiency, Rental risk, Life-cycle.

Expected Bequests and Current Wealth of Older Households

We use the subjective probabilities of bequests to be given in the future and current asset holdings, as reported in three household surveys (HRS, ELSA, and SHARE) covering thirteen countries, in order to assess whether, and to what extent, households plan to decumulate assets in old age. We model intended bequests as a function of household demographic and economic characteristics, and estimate their expected value using quasi-maximum likelihood methods. By comparing the current wealth holdings with the expected intended bequests we compute the pattern of future saving by households, and assess its cross-country variability with respect to housing wealth.

Is Consumption Growth Consistent with Intertemporal Optimization? Evidence from the Consumer Expenditure Survey

In this paper we show that some of the predictions of models of consumer intertemporal optimization are not inconsistent with the patterns of non-durable expenditure observed in US household-level data. Our results and our approach are new in several respects. First, we use the only US micro data set which has direct and complete information on household consumption. The microeconomic data sets used in most of the consumption literature so far contained either very limited information on consumption (like the PSID) or none at all, in which case consumption had to be obtained indirectly from income and changes in assets. Second, we propose a flexible and novel specification of preferences which is easily estimable and allows a general treatment jof multiple commodities. We show that aggregation over commodities can be important, both theoretically and in practice. Third, we present empirical results that show that it is possible to find a reasonably simple specification of preferences, which controls for the effects of changes in demographics and labor supply behavior over the life cycle and which is not rejected by the available data. On our preferred specification, we obtain sharp estimates of key behavioral parameters (including the elasticity of intertemporal substitution) and no rejections of theoretical restrictions. Our results contrast sharply with most of the previous evidence, which has typically been interpreted as rejection of the theory. We show that previous rejections can be explained by the simplifying assumptions made to derive empirically tractable equations. We also show that results obtained using food consumption or aggregate data can be extremely misleading.

What do we learn from recall consumption data?

In this paper we use two complementary Italian data sources (the 1995 Istat and Bank of Italy household surveys) to generate household-specific non-durable expenditure in the Bank of Italy sample that contains relatively high-quality income data. We show that food expenditure data are of comparable quality and informational content across the two surveys, once heaping, rounding and time averaging are properly accounted for. We therefore depart from standard practice and rely on the estimation of an inverse Engel curve on Istat data to impute non-durable expenditure to Bank of Italy observations, and show how these estimates can be used to analyse consumption age profiles conditional on demographics. Our key result is that predictions based on a standard set of demographic and socioeconomic indicators are quite different from predictions that also condition on simulated food consumption, in the sense that their age profile is less in line with the implications of the standard consumer intertemporal optimization problem.recall errors, heaping and rounding, multiple imputations and consumption

Saving and Cohabitation: The Economic Consequences of Living with One's Parents in Italy and the Netherlands

The paper deals with the e.ects of cohabitation of grown children with their parents on household saving, using data from Italy and the Netherlands. It presents a two-period gametheoretical model where the child has to decide whether to move out of the parental home. This decision is affected by transaction costs, the child's preference for independence, and by the consumption loss induced by the move (consumption is a public good while the child lives in the parental home). We show that the child's income share affects the household saving decision, in contrast with predictions of the standard unitary model of household decision making. Empirical results from both countries are supportive of the key model predictions. We find strong positive effects of the child income share on the saving rate in Italy, where we calculate saving as the difference between disposable income and consumption but cannot distinguish children who will leave from those who will stay. We also find some significant effects of the child income share on household saving rate in the Netherlands, where saving is computed as the change over time in financial wealth. In the Dutch data we distinguish between children who stay and children who leave. The effect of the child's income share is significantly negative for those who stay, positive for those who leave.

The Survey on Health, Aging and Wealth

Until very recently, health information has been mostly absent from Italian surveys of household budgets and economic conditions. Interest in the association between health outcomes, economic resources and labor market conditions has led us to fill the gap with new microeconomic data. The product of this collective effort is the Survey on Health, Aging and Wealth (SHAW). The survey was commissioned to DOXA, a leading Italian polling agency with considerable experience in the field. The questionnaire is patterned after the US Health and Retirement Survey and the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) project, and covers a range of matters bearing on the relations between health and wealth, aging and wealth, health and retirement. The population sampled is representative of the Italian population over 50. Some of the questions refer to the household (for instance, assets). Others are posed to all 2627 household members. More detailed questions on health status, job outcomes and expectations of future events are asked only to the respondent and spouse, 1765 individuals in total (1068 heads and 697 spouses). These characteristics of the survey make SHAW a unique source for studying the relation between socioeconomic status, health outcomes and health care utilization.

Health Care Quality and Economic Inequality

We argue that health care quality has an important impact on economic inequality and on saving behaviour. We exploit district-wide variability in health care quality provided by the Italian universal public health system to identify the effect of quality on income inequality, health inequality and precautionary saving. We find that in lower quality districts there is greater income and health dispersion and higher precautionary saving. The analysis carries important insights for the ongoing debate about the validity of the life-cycle model and interesting policy implications for the design of health care systems.

Is there a retirement consumption puzzle in Italy?

In this paper we investigate the way consumption changes around retirement in Italy. Using micro data covering the 1985-96 period, we find that consumption age patterns are similar to those found in the US and other developed countries, despite the much more wide-spread cohabitation of different generations. We also document the existence of a one-off drop in consumption at retirement of the household head, as in the UK and the US, and find that consumption of work-related goods falls around retirement age and home production of food and other goods increases. Given that we can provide evidence that Italian households who retired over the sample period knew reasonably well what their pension income would be, the only reason why forward looking consumers should reduce spending around retirement is because of their increased consumption of leisure. We do find evidence that the abrupt falls in total non-durable consumption at retirement disappear when leisure is taken into account, in agreement with the predictions of the life-cycle theory. This finding is robust to the way consumption is attributed to different household members, and to exclusion of non-nuclear households from the analysis.